Now that Joe Biden has stepped down as Democrat candidate for president and endorsed Kamala Harris, the question arises whether he should resign as well. This Wednesday, Israeli Premier Benjamin Netanyahu will address Congress.
Seemingly unrelated, the address and Biden’s fitness for office are closely connected. The recent history between the two leaders has been fraught, but the immediate future would be truly dangerous.
Biden’s policy on Israel and Gaza has been a dramatic failure, providing hard evidence of Biden’s fecklessness in face of Netanyahu’s bullheadedness.
Yet, upcoming challenges in the Mideast dwarf Gaza, suggesting grave risks if Biden remains in office.
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There is mounting risk of conflict on Israel’s northern border. In solidarity with Hamas, heavily armed Hezbollah in south Lebanon has rained rocket fire on northern Israel ever since October 7th. As a result, 80,000 to 100,000 Israelis have had to evacuate the north. A similar number of Lebanese have abandoned south Lebanon as Israel has retaliated. The situation cannot persist. An Israel-Hezbollah confrontation looms.
Much of former president Obama’s ill-conceived Iran nuclear deal, or what’s left of it, expires in less than four months (specifically, UN backing of the agreement under Resolution 2231 expires). Since its inception, Israel has said it will not tolerate a nuclear Iran. Will Israel act?
Every American should worry about Biden’s unsteady hand at the helm over the next six months until inauguration.
Over the last nine months, Biden has sought to restrain Netanyahu. Netanyahu has ignored Biden and flattened Gaza, causing over 125,000 casualties. Agree with Biden’s policy or not, but Biden has failed in its pursuit.
Contrast Biden’s failure with former president Reagan in 1982. Reagan called then-Israeli premier Menachem Begin, telling him that Israeli bombing of West Beirut was “needless destruction and bloodshed.” Reagan told Begin to stop. Begin stopped the next day.
Not long ago, Biden said that Israel invading the city of Rafah in Gaza would cross a red line. Netanyahu crossed the line without any consequences.
Biden has threatened to withhold offensive weapons from Israel to moderate its onslaught in Gaza. Yet, he withheld only a single shipment of bombs, and the pulverizing of Gaza continues apace with a massive bombardment just last week.
Biden’s diplomatic efforts to effectuate a ceasefire have yielded nothing.
Yet, these challenges pale in comparison with those immediately ahead.
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Hezbollah has said from the beginning that it will cease its rocket fire only when there’s a ceasefire and an end to the war in Gaza. Even now with Gaza pulverized, Netanyahu has refused to outline a plan for “the day after.” Indeed, he has said that Israeli forces will remain in Gaza for the foreseeable future. So, there will be no “after.” Can Biden manage the inevitable Hezbollah-Israeli standoff? Doubtful.
Iran has said it will intervene if Israel invades Lebanon. Yet, it is no exaggeration to say that Netanyahu may see this as a make-my-day opportunity. Netanyahu wants to destroy Iran’s nuclear program. Time is running short, with much of the Iran nuclear deal soon to expire. Iranian intervention would provide the pretext.
The Israeli military is the most powerful in the Mideast, but there is no assurance that it is capable of attacking Iran and wiping out Iranian nuclear facilities – while also battling Hezbollah. After a long exhausting campaign in Gaza, can Israel’s military prevail in a two-front war with Hezbollah and Iran?
From Netanyahu’s point of view, dragging the U.S. into the encounter would share the burden and moderate the risk. Americans can expect Netanyahu to use his Congressional address on Wednesday to rally Americans to an unspecified but anything-necessary joint effort. Can a manifestly compromised Joe Biden manage the enormous risks involved? Very doubtful.
This would be war at the strategic level. Ripe with potential unintended regional and global consequences.
The linkages are clear, leading from Gaza to Lebanon to Iran. If Biden has been incapable of influencing lesser developments to date, how can anyone believe he has the capacity to manage these more consequential risks going forward?
Biden has been tested and failed miserably.
Kamala Harris is untested, which is dangerous. Yet, governance by a coterie of advisers is even more dangerous. It is clear that Biden’s advisors have been acting less in an advisory role, and more in a collective stand-in role.
A circle of advisors, each angling for influence, none really knowing who and how any particular decision has been, or is being, made, is extraordinarily dangerous. Especially so, with senior advisers wondering how to position themselves in relation to Harris as the highly likely nominee.
If Harris is the nominee, she would benefit tremendously from the mantle of incumbency. For Biden doing the right thing for the country would line up with doing the best thing for his party.
Red Jahncke is a nationally recognized columnist, who writes about politics and policy. His columns appear in numerous national publications, such as The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, USA Today, The Hill, Issues & Insights and National Review as well as many Connecticut newspapers.