Posts published in “National Newspapers”

Until recently, U.S. policy had been to staunchly defend Israel’s right to exist, while, simultaneously, to advocate for a Palestinian homeland. No longer. The Palestinians have been forgotten.

Nevertheless, today, there is a real opportunity to rebalance and create a Palestinian home (not state) in Gaza and the West Bank. That potential already has tangible form.

A variation of the two-state solution has already been adopted (but not yet implemented) as the short-term “day-after” solution in Gaza.

In Gaza, international peacekeepers (“the International Stabilization Force,” or ISF) are to disarm Hamas and replace the Israeli Defense Forces. The plan calls for Gazans to accept demilitarization and oversight by an external security force that protects them from Israel and vice versa.

Yet, this plan could be jump-started if U.S. troops man the ISF together with troops from a major Arab nation. And, if it can be launched in Gaza, it can be expanded to the West Bank and extended long-term.

A Gaza-only plan is not a solution.

The outcome in Iran is emerging as a two-staged agreement where, in the second stage, Iran agrees to as-yet undefined limits on its nuclear program over a period of ten to twenty years. President Trump will declare victory, but he will have a hard time explaining how his agreement is much better than former president Obama's 2015 ten-to-fifteen year deal that he criticized and cashiered.

Yet, with the destruction of so much of Iran’s weaponry and its military-industrial complex, he has set back Iran’s ability to produce a nuclear weapon for years in a way the Obama did not. And, with a decade of advances in remote surveillance technology, arguably, American ability to detect deal violations will be robust, enabling immediate responses.

Beyond trading removal of the American blockade for Iran’s opening of the Strait of Hormuz in the first stage, we do not know what Iranian demands he will have to meet to reach a deal. No deal is ever one-sided.

The likely outcome of the Iran War is a draw at best. Yet, President Trump could achieve much more. In high irony, the conflict has revealed that Iran may not need a nuclear weapon. Closing the Strait of Hormuz has emerged as Iran’s non-nuclear weapon of mass destruction. With some diplomatic pressure and ingenuity, Iran might be induced to swap nuclear for non-nuclear.

This swap could serve as the basis for settlement of the entire Mideast conflict.

Trump could induce Iran to give up its entire nuclear program in return for the establishment of a Palestinian homeland (not state) in the West Bank and Gaza overseen by U.S. and Arab armies.

He could sweeten the deal with a plan for the U.S. and Iran together to patrol and toll the Strait, an idea that the President recently half-embraced half-seriously. The toll receipts would be devoted to the massive cost of regional reconstruction, for which there is no other apparent source of funding.

President Trump does not to have a clear strategy in Iran, despite that the objective is clear, namely, to deny Iran a nuclear bomb. The general approach has been apparent: punish Iran until it capitulates.

Except that military punishment has ceased. Now, it is economic warfare. The outcome depends on which side can outlast the other.

What are the president’s strategic options? In common parlance: go long, go home or go big.

We have been going long. The expected outcome has been a long-term agreement somehow limiting Iran’s nuclear program, although the recent suspension of peace negotiations raises doubt about this outcome.

Connecticut Governor Ned Lamont just got caught with his hand in Uncle Sam’s cookie jar.  For the last eight months, he has offered various far-fetched explanations claiming that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and its prohibition on hospital tax rate increases, did not apply to Connecticut.

Last summer, he jacked up Connecticut’s tax on hospitals almost 50%. The hospital tax is a shell game enabling states to obtain federal money simply by shifting money around: extracting taxes from hospitals, and, then, immediately returning most of it, with the return triggering matching federal funds.  The higher the tax, the more federal dollars obtainable.

A month ago, he got caught and had to reverse his tax increase.

Lamont thought he could take one more big beautiful bite out of Uncle Sam before the OBBBA took effect. His increase took the hospital tax up to $1.2 billion, or 7.4% of Connecticut hospitals’ most recently reported $15.8 billion of net patient revenue, according to Lamont’s spokesperson.

Hospital taxes are not supposed to exceed 6% of net patient revenue. To go over that level, states need a waiver from Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS).

In early June, Connecticut instituted a $375 million hospital tax increase, adding near-50% to its last reported hospital tax net revenue of $790 million in fiscal 2024. Mostly likely, the increase violated the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, or pre-existing federal law, or both.

The state has offered a confusing and unconvincing defense, claiming to have the approval of Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), whose role in the matter is also suspect.  

Connecticut’s June increase looks like a reversion to the state's regular abuse of its hospitals, which the Connecticut Hospital Association has described as follows “For many years, Connecticut used the tax primarily to bolster the state budget – resulting in revenue gains for the state, and overall net losses for hospitals.”  

CMS was asleep at the switch concerning Connecticut’s past abuse of its hospitals. Is it turning a blind eye yet again as Connecticut employs the shakiest of rationales for its latest assault on its hospitals?

Thursday, August 7th is now tariff day, postponed recently from August 1^st and originally from Liberation Day in April. Despite delayed execution, tariffs, in combination with the One Big Beautiful Bill, are central to Making American Great Again. Some may be surprised that MAGA is a plan, not just a slogan.

Last month’s Monthly Treasury Statement showed tariff revenue running already at annual rate of $324 billion, or $3.2 trillion over the next decade. In early June, the Congressional Budget Office scored Trump’s emerging tariff regime at $3.0 trillion over the decade. President Trump has just struck a trade agreement with the European Union. These admittedly preliminary results and estimates reflect revenue that offsets almost completely the $3.4 trillion increase in deficits and debt that the CBO ascribes to the OBBB.

In pure dollar terms, this should calm deficit hawks.

With the OBBB rewarding income generation and tariffs penalizing consumption, the combo is revolutionary in modern times.