Blue-state and blue-city voters pay higher taxes. Blue states and cities often also pay state and local government workers more than similar jobs pay in red jurisdictions, even after adjusting for the cost of living.
California, New York and Illinois top the list of states with declining populations over the past five years.
Red Line Editor’s Note: The cited decline is despite high “international” in-migration. Nationally, international in-migration declined drastically in 2025 under Trump Administration immigration policy. Only half of 2025’s decline is captured in the cited data which runs only through July 1, 2025. Over the five years, Connecticut gained population, but only based upon its seventh-highest ranking international in-migration, which exceeded its significant domestic out-migration.
Much of this gap is tied up in pension benefits. Workers generally value higher wages today more than retirement guarantees in the future. But pensions are attractive to politicians who pass future costs to future taxpayers.
The question is whether one segment of workers should retire with greater security than others, at the expense of services that the public depends on.
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Read the full column in The New York Times.
Nicholas Bagley is a law professor at the University of Michigan and a former chief legal counsel to Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan. Robert Gordon is a visiting fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School and a former senior official in the Biden and Obama administrations and at the New York City Department of Education.
